Category: FiveThirtyEight

From FiveThirtyEight:

Democrats had an election night to forget last month. They lost the presidency and a net of two governor’s mansions, and gained fewer seats in the House and Senate than was expected. But those disappointments didn’t all occur the same way. Although the Senate elections were among the most nationalized of all time — Donald Trump won the states where GOP Senate candidates were elected — 2016’s 12 gubernatorial races didn’t follow suit. And the lack of a close tie between the gubernatorial races and the presidential race could be a good thing for Democrats in 2018 and going forward, but it might also shield Republicans if the Trump administration runs into problems.

Read the rest of Harry’s column here.

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From FiveThirtyEight:

Let’s take two fairly obvious data-driven conclusions from the 2016 election and see if there’s any link between them.

The first conclusion: Education was almost everything in explaining the results of the race. Donald Trump substantially improved on Mitt Romney’s performance among voters without college degrees — especially white voters without college degrees. Hillary Clinton somewhat improved on President Obama’s performance with college-educated voters. The link between education levels and the shift in the vote is robust, even when controlling for other factors, such as income levels.

Read the rest of Nate’s column here.

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